Economics of automation

When do the robots come for my job?

September 20, 2021 — January 21, 2025

economics
faster pussycat
innovation
language
machine learning
mind
neural nets
technology
UI

What does innovation in automation mean for the economy as it pertains to people?

Figure 1

Soundtrack: Machines work, by B(iftek) (video clip).

Daron Acemoglu has written much on the economics of modern automation recently(Acemoglu et al. 2020; Acemoglu and Restrepo 2018, 2020).

Many others have been thinking about this for a long time. It is tricky. What even is the role of manufacturing in the economy? How much does automation affect dematerialized economies? How about at the singularity?

Erusian and Doug Summers-Stay, Will Automation Lead To Economic Crisis?

tl;dr: Until the pace of automation increases faster than new jobs can be created, AI shouldn’t be expected to cause mass unemployment or anything like that. When AI can pick up a new job as quickly and cheaply as a person can, then the economy will break (but everything else will break too, because that would be the Singularity).

Figure 2

As usual, Scott Alexander’s opinion might not be definitive but it does point to some interesting stuff: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted To Know.

1 Incoming

2 References

Acemoglu, Autor, Hazell, et al. 2020. AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies.” Working Paper 28257.
Acemoglu, and Restrepo. 2018. Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work.” Working Paper 24196.
———. 2020. The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labour Demand.” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society.
Andrus, Dean, Gilbert, et al. 2021. AI Development for the Public Interest: From Abstraction Traps to Sociotechnical Risks.”
Babina, Fedyk, He, et al. 2021. Artificial Intelligence, Firm Growth, and Industry Concentration.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3651052.
Danaher. 2018. Toward an Ethics of AI Assistants: An Initial Framework.” Philosophy & Technology.
Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, et al. 2023. GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models.”
Felten, Raj, and Seamans. 2019. The Occupational Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Labor, Skills, and Polarization.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3368605.
Kalyani, Bloom, Carvalho, et al. 2025. The Diffusion of New Technologies.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Lane, and Saint-Martin. 2021. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labour Market: What Do We Know so Far?
Thirunavukarasu, Ting, Elangovan, et al. 2023. Large Language Models in Medicine.” Nature Medicine.