Scaling laws for very large neural nets

Theory of trading-off budgets for compute size and data

January 14, 2021 — January 21, 2025

bounded compute
functional analysis
machine learning
model selection
optimization
statmech
when to compute
Figure 1

Got good behaviour from a million parameter model? Want to see if stuff gets weirder as we hit a billion parameters? Turns out it does! It seems to even do so dependably! There is something philosophically deep here. Why does looking at more stuff seem to bring more computationally complex problems within reach? I don’t know but I’m desperately keen to carve out some time to solve that.

Brief links on the theme of scaling in the extremely large model/large data limit and what that does to the behaviour of the models. A new front in the complexity and/or statistical mechanics of statistics, and whether neural networks extrapolate.

As to how to scale up these models in practice, see distributed gradient descent.

Content on this page has not been updated as fast as the field has been moving; you should follow the references for the latest.

1 Side note: The bitter, better lesson

See optimal cleverness.

2 Big transformers

One fun result comes from Transformer language models. An interesting observation way back in 2020 was that there seemed to be an unexpected trade-off where you can go faster by training a bigger network. I think this paper was ground zero of modern scaling studies, which try to identify and predict optimal trade-offs and ultimate performance under different scaling (of compute, data, parameters) regimes.

nostalgebraist summarises Henighan et al. (2020);Kaplan et al. (2020):

2.1 L(D): information

OpenAI derives a scaling law called L(D). This law is the best you could possibly do — even with arbitrarily large compute/models — if you are only allowed to train on D data points.

No matter how good your model is, there is only so much it can learn from a finite sample. L(D) quantifies this intuitive fact (if the model is an autoregressive transformer).

2.2 L(C): budgeting

OpenAI also derives another scaling law called L(C). This is the best you can do with compute C, if you spend it optimally.

What does optimal spending look like? Remember, you can spend a unit of compute on * a bigger model (N), or * training the same model for longer (S)

… In the compute regime we are currently in, making the model bigger is way more effective than taking more steps.

The scaling laws continue to be revised.

3 Incoming

4 References

Biderman, Schoelkopf, Anthony, et al. 2023. Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling.” In Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning.
Brill. 2024. Neural Scaling Laws Rooted in the Data Distribution.”
Douglas, and Verstyuk. 2025. Progress in Artificial Intelligence and Its Determinants.”
Henighan, Kaplan, Katz, et al. 2020. Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling.” arXiv:2010.14701 [Cs].
Hoffmann, Borgeaud, Mensch, et al. 2022. Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models.”
Hu, Song, Weinstein, et al. 2022. Training Overparametrized Neural Networks in Sublinear Time.”
Hutter. 2021. Learning Curve Theory.”
Kaplan, McCandlish, Henighan, et al. 2020. Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models.” arXiv:2001.08361 [Cs, Stat].
Kirstain, Lewis, Riedel, et al. 2021. A Few More Examples May Be Worth Billions of Parameters.” arXiv:2110.04374 [Cs].
Kumar, Bradbury, Young, et al. 2020. Exploring the Limits of Concurrency in ML Training on Google TPUs.” arXiv:2011.03641 [Cs].
Mahowald, Ivanova, Blank, et al. 2024. Dissociating language and thought in large language models.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences.
Muennighoff, Rush, Barak, et al. 2023. Scaling Data-Constrained Language Models.” Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems.
Naveed, Khan, Qiu, et al. 2024. A Comprehensive Overview of Large Language Models.”
Schaeffer, Miranda, and Koyejo. 2023. Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage? Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems.
Sharma, and Kaplan. 2020. A Neural Scaling Law from the Dimension of the Data Manifold.” arXiv:2004.10802 [Cs, Stat].
Sorscher, Geirhos, Shekhar, et al. 2023. Beyond Neural Scaling Laws: Beating Power Law Scaling via Data Pruning.”
Thirunavukarasu, Ting, Elangovan, et al. 2023. Large Language Models in Medicine.” Nature Medicine.
Togelius, and Yannakakis. 2023. Choose Your Weapon: Survival Strategies for Depressed AI Academics.”
Wei, Tay, Bommasani, et al. 2022. Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models.”
Zhang, Warstadt, Li, et al. 2020. When Do You Need Billions of Words of Pretraining Data? arXiv:2011.04946 [Cs].
Zhao, Zhou, Li, et al. 2024. A Survey of Large Language Models.”